Study Links UK Mental Health Decline to Economic and Social Events

Published in BMJ Mental Health, the research examined the psychological impacts of major events from 2016 through 2024, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the U.K. government's 2022 "mini-budget." The study highlighted substantial increases in psychological distress following these events, which disproportionately affected certain groups and often exacerbated existing inequalities.

Lead author Dr. Annie Jeffery noted that the mental health of the nation has deteriorated significantly in recent years, particularly among young people. She emphasized the role of major societal events as contributing factors to this decline. Dr. Jeffery described the past decade as one marked by overlapping crises, leading to ongoing uncertainty and instability affecting mental well-being in Britain.

The research utilized longitudinal survey data from 87,857 participants in Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyze psychological distress from 2009 to 2024. The findings revealed that levels of psychological distress have been increasing since 2009, particularly accelerating from 2015 onward. Young people aged 16-34 experienced the most significant increases, transitioning from the lowest levels of distress in 2009 to the highest following the pandemic.

Immediate spikes in psychological distress were observed after the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the first COVID-19 lockdown. Although the mental health effects of the pandemic lessened over time, the overall levels of psychological distress had not returned to pre-pandemic benchmarks by 2024. Subsequent events, like the invasion of Ukraine and the financial pressures from the 2022 "mini-budget," also contributed to escalating distress in the months that followed.

The impacts of these events were uneven across different demographics. Women faced greater mental health challenges during the pandemic, while individuals in deprived areas were particularly hard hit by the fallout from Brexit. Although the first lockdown initially affected those in wealthier areas, the long-term mental health burden was felt most severely by those in disadvantaged communities. Moreover, individuals with long-term illnesses or disabilities also experienced greater distress, especially after major adverse events.

Dr. Jeffery emphasized that mental health in Britain did not recover after these significant events; rather, the negative impacts often compounded over time. Senior author Professor James Kirkbride highlighted the need for policies that recognize the mental health consequences of political, social, and economic shocks, urging the implementation of robust mental health support systems targeted at vulnerable neighborhoods.

The study did not assess the effects of positive societal events, indicating a potential area for future research. The collaborative study was conducted by researchers across UCL’s Psychiatry and Statistical Science departments, alongside Imperial College London and the London School of Economics (LSE).

Publication details: Annie Jeffery et al, Impact of 15 years of social, political and economic shocks on population mental health in the UK: a longitudinal, Bayesian quasi-experimental analysis, BMJ Mental Health (2026). DOI: 10.1136/bmjment-2026-302688.