Research has found that significant events over the past decade, including Brexit, the mini-budget introduced by Liz Truss, and the Covid lockdowns, have contributed to a lasting decline in mental health across the UK population. The study highlights the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which also led to an increase in psychological distress levels, specifically in terms of depression and anxiety.
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The findings coincide with an upcoming report by Professor Peter Fonagy, commissioned by the government, investigating the rise in mental illness diagnoses, including ADHD and autism. This report is set to be published on Friday and comes amid concerns regarding the 2.8 million Britons who are currently unfit for work and nearly 1 million young people, aged 16 to 24, who are not engaged in education, employment, or training (the so-called “Neets”).
Researchers from University College London, led by Dr. Annie Jeffery, analyzed data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, involving 87,857 individuals aged 16 and older, collected from 2009 to 2024. They assessed the mental health effects of five major events described as “systemic shocks.” Jeffery indicated that the past decade has been significantly shaped by multiple overlapping crises, resulting in increased mental health issues in Britain.
The analysis revealed that both the Brexit referendum in June 2016 and the first Covid lockdown in March 2020 resulted in the most severe impacts on mental wellness. The Brexit vote alone is estimated to have led to around 120,000 additional people seeking help from GPs for depression. In contrast, the first lockdown prompted a far larger jump in distress, with approximately 900,000 individuals visiting doctors with depressive symptoms.
The research also noted that the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in around 15,000 additional monthly GP visits for depression. Following Liz Truss’s mini-budget in September 2022, the figure rose to about 23,000 more patients per month seeking help.
Andy Bell, CEO of the Centre for Mental Health, acknowledged the considerable impact of Covid on mental health, suggesting that other events also contributed to feelings of insecurity and disconnection among the population. He argued that the rising distress is not due to a single cause, but rather a culmination of several factors, exacerbated by years of austerity that have diminished the support available during crises.
Mental health issues have a substantial financial cost to the UK, estimated at £300 billion annually. The UCL-led study, published in the journal BMJ Mental Health, indicated that psychological distress had been on the rise in the UK since 2009, but the pace accelerated notably after 2015. Even following the most recent events through 2022, the elevated distress levels have not reverted to pre-2016 figures.
The number of individuals in England accessing NHS mental health services has nearly doubled, from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million by 2024-25. Monthly NHS referrals for mental health have increased from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026, reflecting a 47% rise. This surge in demand for mental health care, driven by ongoing anxiety and stress, has put significant pressure on NHS services, with an unprecedented number of people seeking assistance, according to Tom Pollard, director of policy, campaigns, and public affairs at the mental health charity Mind.